基于Agent的水资源管理模型研究进展

基于Agent的模型(Agent-based models,ABM)研究已成为水资源管理研究理论与方法的重要补充。对水资源管理ABM研究进行归纳与展望,有助于探索优化中国水资源管理体制和机制。在阐述水资源管理ABM概念及内涵的基础上,提炼出主体决策规则和互作机制两个建模核心内容,并对其方法进行了归纳分析;从流域水资源优化配置、城镇居民用水管理和灌区水资源管理3个方面,对2009—2018年主要水资源管理ABM研究进行了综述;针对当前研究的难点与不足,提出未来研究重点:①拓展复杂适应理论在水资源管理领域的应用;②加强不确定性水资源管理ABM研究;③探索基于机器学习的决策规则建模方法;④重视参数校准和结果校验及检验方法;⑤加强模型表述格式标准化进程;⑥综合权衡水资源管理ABM框架。     

中国南部对流层中上层臭氧增加的气象场判识及臭氧变化的多尺度特征

副热带急流对中国南部地区对流层中上层臭氧浓度的影响程度及地理范围目前还研究较少,且缺乏综合使用常规气象资料及卫星资料来判识对流层中上层臭氧浓度增高的方法.本文利用NCEP再分析与最终分析资料、日本GMS-5地球静止卫星水汽云图资料,以2001年3月27~29日中国南部的临安、昆明、香港臭氧探测个例为基础,结合1996年3月29日香港与2001年4月13日临安对流层中上层高浓度臭氧分布个例对副热带急流对中国南部对流层中上层臭氧浓度的影响进行了详细分析,提出根据气象要素场判识春季中国南部对流层中上层臭氧浓度增高的充分条件为根据卫星水汽图像上的暗区、高空急流入口区的左侧辐合区、高空锋区、对流层中上层≥1 PVU的向下伸展的舌状高位涡区来综合判断.本文的分析结果表明,本文个例中对流层中上层高浓度臭氧来自平流层;香港对流层中上层低浓度臭氧来自热带海洋地区.不仅臭氧垂直廓线的多个极小与极大值表明臭氧垂直分布的多尺度变化特征,而且对流层中上层PV分布以及卫星水汽图像分析也表明大气中的多尺度运动对臭氧垂直分布特征有显著影响.本文的结果表明与副热带高空急流相联系的平流层空气侵入不仅发生在中国大陆的较高纬度地区,较低纬度的昆明与香港地区也有平流层空气侵入导致对流层中上层臭氧浓度升高.     

香港GPS基准站坐标序列特征分析

利用香港GPS连续运行参考站网络2001年1月至2007年8月的观测资料,全面深入地分析了12个基准站坐标序列特征.本文采用主成分空间滤波算法去除公共误差,来提高坐标序列的信噪比,并采用最大似然估计准则定量估计滤波后坐标序列的噪声特性,计算了地球表面质量负荷（包括大气、非潮汐海洋、积雪和土壤水）对香港GPS基准站坐标序列的影响.研究结果表明：香港GPS基准站坐标序列具有高度的空间相关性,其公共误差具有较强的季节性变化特征;地表质量负荷变化引起的香港地壳形变可以解释公共误差序列中约为3mm的垂向周年变化,经过质量负荷改正后的公共误差序列与高阶电离层误差高度相关;滤波后坐标序列的噪声特性可以用可变白噪声加闪烁噪声模型来描述,顾及闪烁噪声所计算的速度误差要比只考虑可变白噪声计算的速度误差大2~6倍;基准站间存在达1.5 mm/yr的相对水平运动,揭示香港地区存在活动断层;部分基准站坐标具有明显的振幅为1～2 mm本地季节性变化,所有测站的残差序列也表现出强烈的季节性变化.     

海洋贝类Toll样受体及其接头蛋白MyD88的分子进化研究

海洋贝类在长期的进化过程中具备了复杂和独特的免疫体系,为免疫防御系统的适应性进化研究提供了典型实例。目前海洋贝类天然免疫系统经典分子在后生动物演化历程中的特点尚不明确。为探究模式识别受体Toll样受体(TLR)及其接头分子髓样分化因子(MyD88)基因家族在后生动物中的进化历程,研究了32个后生动物演化代表性物种中TLR及MyD88基因家族的系统发育关系,以长牡蛎为代表物种探讨了长牡蛎TLRs和MyD88s在病原感染、环境胁迫、早期发育和组织分化条件下的基因表达模式。结果表明,海洋贝类中普遍存在TLR和MyD88基因家族的扩张,在腹足类和双壳类中检测到两个基因家族谱系特异性的基因扩张, 46个长牡蛎特异性扩张的TLR基因能够被病原诱导表达,且在不同类型的病原感染下,其表达模式具有特异性。和病原诱导表达的TLRs相比,参与牡蛎早期发育的TLRs起源相对古老。研究结果表明,海洋贝类天然免疫模式识别受体TLR及其接头分子MyD88通过基因复制和表达分化形成了复杂特异的信号传导通路,这有助于深入了解海洋贝类的天然免疫防御系统的特点,丰富后生动物天然免疫进化的脉络。     

累计磁极性偏转及其在发电机模型评估中的应用

地磁板性反转纪录通常用代表两种极性的黑白间隔所组成的极性柱来表示。这里引入累计磁极性偏转曲线,作为描述地磁极性反转记录的一种新方法。通过组合整个地质时期地磁极性间隔的长度所获得的这种曲线,使人们更容易想象任一时期内地磁场极性的偏转,以及磁场的滞后性质,它同时提供了一种评估地磁发电机模型的有效手段。本文通过实例论述：如何运用累计磁极性偏转方法,评估无量纲参数和信噪比两者的变化及其对磁极性偏转、极性带长度和极性变化频率的影响。     

一种诱导模式和甘油补料优化策略提高重组大肠杆菌BL21（DE3）β-琼胶酶的产量

琼胶酶是作用于琼胶的水解酶，在食品、化妆品和制药工业中有广泛的应用。本文建立了一种基于诱导模式和甘油补料优化的高细胞密度和高产β-琼胶酶策略，同时可以较好的控制乙酸盐产量。首先，在诱导前期采用不同的比生长速率（μ）的甘油指数补料策略。结果表明，低的比生长速率（μ=0.2）是细胞生长和β-琼胶酶产生的最佳条件。其次，研究了诱导阶段诱导温度和诱导物浓度对细胞生长和β-琼胶酶产生的影响。当异丙基-β-d-硫代半乳糖苷（IPTG）诱导时，在20℃下0.8mmol/L的IPTG诱导策略对β-琼胶酶的产生效果最佳。采用1.0g/（L·h）的乳糖连续补料策略诱导培养，β-琼胶酶活性达到112.5U/mL，是目前报道的产量最高的β-琼胶酶。此外，β-琼胶酶能直接酶解龙须菜粉，产生新琼寡糖，水解产物为新琼胶四糖（NA4）和新琼胶六糖（NA6）。本文的研究为β-琼胶酶的工业化生产和应用提供了较好的理论依据。     

Influence of South China Sea SST and the ENSO on Winter Rainfall over South China

The present study investigates the influence of South China Sea (SCS) SST and ENSO on winter (January--February--March; JFM) rainfall over South China and its dynamic processes by using station observations for the period 1951--2003, Met Office Hadley Center SST data for the period 1900--2008, and ERA-40 reanalysis data for the period 1958--2002. It is found that JFM rainfall over South China has a significant correlation with Nino-3 and SCS SST. Analyses show that in El Nino or positive SCS SST anomaly years, southwesterly anomalies at 700 hPa dominate over the South China Sea, which in turn transports more moisture into South China and favors increased rainfall. A partial regression analysis indicates that the independent ENSO influence on winter rainfall occurs mainly over South China, whereas SCS SST has a larger independent influence on winter rainfall in northern part of South China. The temperature over South China shows an obvious decrease at 300 hPa and an increase near the surface, with the former induced by Nino-3 and the latter SCS SST anomalies. This enhances the convective instability and weakens the potential vorticity (PV), which explains the strengthening of ascending motion and the increase of JFM rainfall over South China.     

PROGRESS OF MARINE METEOROLOGICAL OBSERVATION EXPERIMENT AT MAOMING OF SOUTH CHINA

The coastal area of southern China is frequently affected by marine meteorological disasters,and is also one of the key areas that influence the short-term climate change of China.Due to a lack of observational facilities and techniques,little has been done in this area in terms of operational weather monitoring and scientific research on atmospheric and marine environment.With the support of China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and Guangdong Meteorological Bureau (GMB),the Marine Meteorological Science Experiment Base (MMSEB) at Bohe,Maoming has been jointly established by Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology (GITMM) and Maoming Meteorological Bureau (MMB) of Guangdong Province after three years of hard work.It has become an integrated coastal observation base that is equipped with a complete set of sophisticated instruments.Equipment maintenance and data quality control procedures have been implemented to ensure the long-term,steady operation of the instruments and the availability of high quality data.Preliminary observations show that the data obtained by the MMSEB reveal many interesting features in the boundary layer structure and air-sea interaction in such disastrous weather as typhoons and sea fog.The MMSEB is expected to play an important role in the scientific research of disastrous weather related to marine meteorology.     

Long-Term Trends in Extreme Temperatures in Hong Kong and Southern China

The observed long-term trends in extreme temperatures in Hong Kong were studied based on the meteorological data recorded at the Hong Kong Observatory Headquarters from 1885-2008. Results show that, over the past 124 years, the extreme daily minimum and maximum temperatures, as well as the length of the warm spell in Hong Kong, exhibit statistically significant long-term rising trends, while the length of the cold spell shows a statistically significant decreasing trend. The time-dependent return period analysis also indicated that the return period for daily minimum temperature at 4°C or lower lengthened considerably from 6 years in 1900 to over 150 years in 2000, while the return periods for daily maximum temperature reaching 35°C or above shortened drastically from 32 years in 1900 to 4.5 years in 2000. Past trends in extreme temperatures from selected weather stations in southern China from 1951-2004 were also assessed. Over 70% of the stations studied yielded a statistically significant rising trend in extreme daily minimum temperature, while the trend for extreme maximum temperatures was found to vary, with no significant trend established for the majority of stations.     

Projections of Extreme Rainfall in Hong Kong in the 21st Century

The possible changes in the frequency of extreme rainfall events in Hong Kong in the 21st century wereinvestigated by statistically downscaling 30 sets of the daily global climate model projections (involvinga combination of 12 models and 3 greenhouse gas emission scenarios,namely,A2,A1B,and B1) of theFourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.To cater for the intermittentand skewed character of the daily rainfall,multiple stepwise logistic regression and multiple stepwise linearregression were employed to develop the downscaling models for predicting rainfall occurrence and rainfallamount,respectively.Verification of the simulation of the 1971-2000 climate reveals that the models ingeneral have an acceptable skill in reproducing past statistics of extreme rainfall events in Hong Kong.Theprojection results suggest that,in the 21st century,the annual number of rain days in Hong Kong is expectedto decrease while the daily rainfall intensity will increase,concurrent with the expected increase in annualrainfall.Based on the multi-model scenario ensemble mean,the annual number of rain day is expected todrop from 104 days in 1980-1999 to about 77 days in 2090-2099.For extreme rainfall events,about 90% ofthe model-scenario combinations indicate an increase in the annual number of days with daily rainfall 100mm (R100) towards the end of the 21st century.The mean number of R100 is expected to increase from 3.5days in 1980-1999 to about 5.3 days in 2090-2099.The projected changes in other extreme rainfall indicesalso suggest that the rainfall in Hong Kong in the 21st century may also become more extreme with moreuneven distributions of wet and dry periods.While most of the model-emission scenarios in general projectconsistent trends in the change of rainfall extremes in the 21st century,there is a large divergence in theprojections among different model/emission scenarios.This reflects that there are still large uncertainties inmodel simulations of future extreme rainfall events.